India’s Foreign Policy Evolution in 2024

India’s foreign policy has undergone a remarkable transformation, evolving from non-alignment to strategic autonomy while navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. This analysis examines the key shifts and their implications.

The Strategic Context

Global Power Dynamics

The international order is experiencing significant flux:

US-China Rivalry: The defining geopolitical competition of our era
Russia-West Tensions: Impact of Ukraine conflict on global alignments
Rise of Global South: Increasing assertiveness of developing nations
Technology Decoupling: Supply chain restructuring and tech wars

India’s Positioning

India has crafted a nuanced approach to these dynamics:

Relationship	2020 Position	2024 Position	Key Shift
USA	Strategic Partner	Comprehensive Strategic Partnership	Deepened defense ties
China	Border Tensions	Managed Competition	Economic decoupling
Russia	Traditional Ally	Strategic Autonomy	Diversified sourcing
EU	Economic Partner	Strategic Partnership	Trade agreement talks
Japan	Development Partner	Special Strategic Partnership	Infrastructure focus

Key Bilateral Relationships

United States: The Defining Partnership

The India-US relationship has transformed dramatically:

Defense Cooperation

The defense partnership has deepened significantly:

Foundational Agreements
- LEMOA (2016): Logistics support
- COMCASA (2018): Secure communications
- BECA (2020): Geospatial intelligence
- New Initiative: Co-production agreements
Defense Trade
- Total defense trade: $25 billion (2008-2024)
- Major platforms: C-130J, C-17, Apache, Chinook, P-8I
- New acquisitions: MQ-9B drones, F-414 engines
Joint Exercises
- Yudh Abhyas: Army exercise
- Malabar: Naval exercise (with Japan, Australia)
- Cope India: Air force exercise
- Tiger Triumph: Tri-service exercise

“The India-US partnership is one of the most consequential relationships of the 21st century. It is rooted in shared democratic values and converging strategic interests.” — Secretary of State Antony Blinken

Technology Partnership

The Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET):

Semiconductors: $3 billion investment by Micron
Space: Joint mission to International Space Station
AI/Quantum: Research partnerships
Telecom: Open RAN collaboration

China: Managing Competition

The relationship with China remains complex:

Border Situation

The Line of Actual Control (LAC) situation:

Sector	Status	Key Friction Points
Eastern Ladakh	Disengaged partially	Depsang, Demchok pending
Central Sector	Stable	No major incidents
Eastern Sector	Tense	Arunachal Pradesh claims

Force Deployment:

Indian troops: 60,000+ additional
Chinese troops: 50,000+ opposite
Infrastructure: All-weather roads, tunnels

Economic Decoupling

India has taken significant steps:

India-China Trade (2024):
- Total Trade: $118 billion
- India's Deficit: $85 billion
- Import Restrictions: 300+ Chinese apps banned
- FDI Screening: Strict scrutiny of Chinese investment
- PLI Schemes: Reducing import dependence

Russia: Balancing Act

The relationship with Russia requires careful management:

Defense Dependency

Legacy Systems: 60% of equipment Russian-origin
S-400 Delivery: 3 of 5 regiments received
Spare Parts: Supply chain challenges
Joint Ventures: BrahMos success story

Energy Cooperation

Oil Imports: 35% of crude from Russia (up from 2%)
Discounted Rates: $30-40 per barrel savings
Payment Mechanism: Rupee-Ruble arrangement
Investment: ONGC Videsh in Russian assets

Neighborhood First Policy

India’s immediate neighborhood remains a priority:

Bangladesh

Trade: $18 billion (largest SAARC partner)
Connectivity: 5 rail links, 2 bus services
Power Export: 1,160 MW to Bangladesh
Development: $10 billion Line of Credit

Sri Lanka

Crisis Support: $4 billion assistance during crisis
Infrastructure: Kankesanthurai Port, airport projects
Energy: Power grid interconnection
Trade: FTA under negotiation

Nepal

Connectivity: Cross-border rail, roads
Energy: Hydropower projects, grid connection
Development: $1 billion development assistance
Open Border: Unique people-to-people ties

Multilateral Engagements

G20 Presidency

India’s G20 presidency (2023) was transformative:

Key Achievements:

African Union Membership: Permanent G20 seat
Global Biofuel Alliance: 30+ countries
India-Middle East-Europe Corridor: Alternative to BRI
Green Development Pact: Climate financing
Reform of Multilateral Development Banks: Capital increase

Quad Partnership

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has gained momentum:

Pillar	Initiatives	Progress
Health	Vaccine partnership	1 billion doses commitment
Climate	Clean hydrogen	Joint research
Tech	Semiconductor supply chain	Risk assessment
Maritime	Domain awareness	Real-time sharing
Space	Earth observation	Data sharing

BRICS and SCO

India’s role in these groupings:

BRICS Expansion:

New members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE
India’s role: Balanced approach
New Development Bank: $30 billion capital

SCO Membership:

Joined: 2017
Role: Counter-terrorism focus
RATS: Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure

Strategic Autonomy in Action

Multiple Alignments

India has pursued a strategy of multiple alignments:

Quad: Security partnership with US, Japan, Australia
BRICS: Engagement with China, Russia, Global South
I2U2: Partnership with US, Israel, UAE
India-Middle East Corridor: Economic connectivity

Defense Diversification

Reducing dependency on any single source:

Source	2014 Share	2024 Share	Key Suppliers
Russia	70%	45%	Declining
USA	10%	18%	Growing
France	5%	15%	Rafale, Scorpene
Israel	8%	12%	Missiles, drones
Others	7%	10%	Diversifying

Economic Diplomacy

Trade Agreements

India has accelerated trade negotiations:

Completed:

UAE CEPA: $100 billion trade target
Australia ECTA: $50 billion target
Mauritius CECPA: Preferential access

Under Negotiation:

UK FTA: 14 rounds completed
EU FTA: 8 rounds completed
Canada CEPA: 10 rounds completed
GCC FTA: Early harvest signed

Development Partnership

India’s development assistance program:

Development Partnership Portfolio:
- Total Lines of Credit: $30 billion
- Countries Covered: 65+
- Major Projects: Infrastructure, energy, agriculture
- Capacity Building: 15,000 scholarships annually
- ITEC Program: 12,000 training slots

Challenges Ahead

Strategic Dilemmas

India faces several strategic challenges:

China’s Rise
- Economic power: $18 trillion GDP
- Military modernization: 7% growth
- BRI expansion: 150+ countries
- Technology leadership: AI, 5G, quantum
US-China Rivalry
- Pressure to choose sides
- Technology restrictions
- Supply chain disruptions
- Sanctions risks
Regional Instability
- Pakistan: Political uncertainty
- Afghanistan: Taliban regime
- Myanmar: Civil conflict
- Maldives: Political shifts

Policy Recommendations

Short-term (2024-2025):

Complete border infrastructure
Accelerate defense modernization
Deepen Quad cooperation
Expand economic partnerships

Medium-term (2025-2030):

Achieve $5 trillion economy
Develop indigenous defense industry
Establish technology leadership
Strengthen regional institutions

Long-term (2030-2047):

Become third-largest economy
Achieve strategic autonomy
Lead Global South
Shape international order

Conclusion

India’s foreign policy in 2024 reflects a confident nation navigating complex global dynamics with strategic autonomy. The shift from non-alignment to multiple alignments has positioned India as a key player in the emerging international order.

The challenges are significant—China’s rise, US-China rivalry, regional instability—but India’s diplomatic skill, economic growth, and strategic partnerships provide a strong foundation for advancing national interests.

As India approaches its centenary of independence in 2047, its foreign policy will play a crucial role in realizing the vision of a developed, prosperous, and influential nation on the global stage.

This analysis is part of our Politics series. For more insights on international relations and strategic affairs, explore our Politics section.

India's Foreign Policy Evolution: Navigating Great Power Competition in 2024