Did Modi Govt Approve Hit-squads In US & Canada? | R&AW Named In Pannun Murder Plot
The conviction of Indian national Nikhil Gupta in a US federal court has triggered the most serious espionage scandal in India’s recent diplomatic history. The case directly implicates Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) operatives and references the Cabinet Secretariat, raising questions about whether the Indian government authorized assassination operations on foreign soil—and whether those operations were compromised by amateurish execution and infiltration by US intelligence.
The Case That Exploded
On June 30, 2023, Nikhil Gupta was arrested in the Czech Republic at US request. He stands accused of orchestrating a plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US-based Khalistani separatist leader of Sikhs for Justice, an organization banned in India. After nearly a year of legal proceedings, Gupta was extradited to the US in June 2024 and has been held at Brooklyn Federal Detention Center since.
On [date of plea], Gupta pleaded guilty to all three counts—conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire and related charges—facing up to 40 years in prison. Sentencing is scheduled for May 29, 2026. The guilty plea represents a stunning vindication of US intelligence operations and a profound embarrassment for India’s national security establishment.
How the Plot Unraveled
The operation’s failure stemmed from a catastrophic intelligence failure: Gupta approached a US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) confidential source to arrange the hit, believing him to be an underworld criminal. The source then connected Gupta to an undercover DEA officer posing as a hitman.
From May 2023 onward, US agents documented every detail of the conspiracy. They recorded conversations, obtained financial records, and collected surveillance photographs. Gupta’s operational communications—including requests for updates on the assassination timeline—were transmitted directly to American investigators.
Perhaps most damaging was the conduct of the alleged RAW handler, identified as Vikas Yadav. According to the US Department of Justice indictment, Yadav was employed in India’s Cabinet Secretariat—the government department that oversees RAW. Yadav allegedly provided Gupta with Pannun’s personal information: New York address, phone number, and routine movements.
Even more shocking, Yadav allegedly broke basic tradecraft protocols by sending Gupta his photograph in uniform and details about the earlier assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. This created a direct forensic link between the Indian intelligence officer and the transnational operation.
The two finalized a $100,000 contract, with $15,000 transferred directly as an advance payment—providing concrete financial evidence. Gupta repeatedly pressured the undercover “hitman” to act, with one specific condition: the assassination should not occur around the time of Prime Minister Modi’s June 2023 state visit to the US, indicating awareness of diplomatic sensitivities.
Connections to Canada and the Nijjar Case
The Pannun plot cannot be understood in isolation. It follows the June 2023 assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia—another Khalistani activist designated as a terrorist by India. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau directly accused the Indian government of involvement in Nijjar’s killing, leading to a diplomatic crisis that saw both countries expel diplomats and relations deteriorate to their lowest point in decades.
The Canadian investigation suggested a systematic pattern: Indian diplomatic staff in Canada gathered intelligence on targets, which was relayed to intelligence officers in India, who then allegedly passed information to criminal networks like the Lawrence Bishnoi gang. Bishnoi, already incarcerated in India for other high-profile assassinations, allegedly became part of the execution chain.
Trudeau’s allegation—that the Indian government was using criminal gangs to target citizens on foreign soil—was initially met with outrage and denial from New Delhi. The Modi government portrayed the accusation as politically motivated and absurd. But the US case against Gupta now validates many of Canada’s claims about the involvement of Indian intelligence and the use of non-state actors.
Why Target Pannun?
The choice of Pannun as a target raises strategic questions. While India classifies him as a terrorist, his actual capabilities and global reach are limited. Pannun operates primarily through online propaganda, organizing symbolic “referendums,” and producing anti-India content. He lacks the operational capacity of figures like Osama bin Laden or even Dawood Ibrahim.
“Why was there a need to eliminate him?” analysts ask. “If it were Dawood Ibrahim, I would understand. If it were Maulana Masood Azhar, I would understand. But Pannun—he has no global terror footprint.”
The assessment from critics: this was an unnecessary high-risk operation for minimal strategic return, conducted with such amateurish tradecraft that it guaranteed discovery. Senior intelligence officials note that professional agencies would either claim no involvement or quietly negotiate a diplomatic solution if caught. The Gupta operation’s exposure appears to result fromHubris and operational incompetence.
Government Response and Denials
India’s Ministry of External Affairs has repeated its denial of government involvement. “Linking an individual and assassination plot to an Indian official is a matter of concern in itself. This is completely against the policy of the Government of India,” the ministry stated in November 2023.
In October 2024, following the second indictment that named Vikas Yadav, the government claimed Yadav was no longer employed and had been arrested on unrelated charges (though he later received bail). The government also constituted a high-level inquiry committee—a move critics call a stalling tactic.
Unlike the Canada confrontation, where Modi government officials shouted down allegations and expelled Canadian diplomats, the response to the US case has been notably muted. There has been no “red eye” display, no dramatic press conferences, no threats of retaliation. The difference reflects power realities: Canada is a mid-sized power; the United States can compel India’s compliance through economic and diplomatic pressure.
Questions That Remain
Five critical questions persist:
1. Did the Modi government authorize these operations? While direct proof of political authorization remains in the realm of inference, the involvement of a Cabinet Secretariat employee and a RAW officer suggests high-level awareness if not explicit approval. The condition that the assassination avoid Modi’s US visit indicates coordination with political calendar considerations.
2. Why such sloppy tradecraft? Using a DEA informant, sending photos in uniform, direct bank transfers—these are errors that would disgrace a first-year intelligence trainee. Either India’s operational capacity has severely atrophied, or the handlers were overconfident and careless.
3. Was the government being blackmailed? The timing of the US revelation—amidst brutal trade negotiations—raises suspicions. “Is it something like this that America has threatened that we will take your name as well as the name of PMO in Pannun case… Is that why we’ve signed this deal being a good boy?” Some analysts speculate the US possessed this information and used it to force unfavorable trade concessions.
4. What does this mean for India’s sovereignty? The US investigation proceeded with apparent disregard for Indian sensitivities—wiretapping communications, gathering evidence against foreign intelligence officers, and ultimately prosecuting an Indian citizen. This level of penetration suggests either extraordinary US capabilities or that Indian intelligence operations in America are heavily compromised.
5. Will Vikas Yadav be extradited? India has initiated parallel criminal proceedings against Yadav—a standard tactic to block extradition under the India-US treaty. But the strength of US evidence, particularly after Gupta’s guilty plea, may force New Delhi to choose between protecting an officer and sustaining the broader relationship.
Implications for India-US Relations
The case occurs against a backdrop of already strained relations. The India-US trade framework signed in February 2026 was widely criticized as a surrender document, with India accepting unfavorable tariff rates, opening agricultural markets, and halting Russian oil purchases. The Pannun revelations add a security dimension to economic tensions.
Washington appears to be signaling that certain boundaries will not be crossed—even for close partners. Using hit squads on US soil crosses what the US considers an existential red line regarding sovereignty. The message: there will be consequences, potentially including sanctions or restrictions on intelligence sharing.
For India, the scandal exposes the risks of aggressive extraterritorial operations. The Khalistan threat, while real in terms of secessionist propaganda, does not rise to the level that justifies assassination plots on Western soil—especially when those plots involve criminal gangs with their own agendas. The Bishnoi gang’s involvement raises questions about whether government resources are being diverted to benefit private criminal enterprises.
The Larger Pattern
The Pannun case fits into a broader pattern of Indian intelligence overreach and subsequent exposure:
- Canada: Similar allegations regarding Nijjar’s assassination led to diplomatic rupture
- US: The Gupta case provides direct evidence of government-linked plotting
- Past operations: Reports suggest Indian intelligence has been active in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, but those operations, while controversial, have generally avoided exposure in Western democratic jurisdictions
What distinguishes this episode is the failure of basic operational security. Every step appears documented, every payment traced, every handler’s photo and identity recorded. This isn’t James Bond—it’s Keystone Cops.
What Comes Next?
With Gupta’s guilty plea, US prosecutors now have a road map to additional conspirators, including Vikas Yadav. Pressure will intensify for Yadav’s extradition. India’s refusal would trigger diplomatic sanctions and likely congressional hearings on India’s reliability as a partner.
For the Modi government, the scandal arrives at an awkward moment—having just concluded trade negotiations from a position of perceived weakness, the US appears to possess additional leverage. Whether the Epstein file revelations, Adani Group investigations, or now this assassination plot, the pattern suggests Washington holds cards that New Delhi cannot counter.
As one analyst summarized: “We had to sign an interim framework for a highly unfavorable trade deal with the US. We had to accept America’s terms. Now we know why.” The full truth may never emerge, but the questions aren’t going away. India’s international reputation, already dented by democratic backsliding concerns, now faces a new crisis: that of a government allegedly running assassination plots on foreign soil with all the subtlety of a bull in a china shop.