Third Tejas Crash! Will New Rafale Deal Solve India’s 5th Gen Fighter Jet Crisis?
The February 7, 2026 Tejas Mk1 runway excursion—the third accident involving India’s indigenous Light Combat Aircraft in less than two years—has grounded the entire 35-aircraft fleet and spotlighted a deepening fighter jet crisis that compromises India’s air power at a time of heightened two-front war threats.
The Immediate Crisis
The Tejas, powered by General Electric’s F404 engine (a 1980s-era design underpowered by modern standards), overshot the runway during takeoff at a forward base, severely damaging its airframe. The pilot ejected with injuries. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) initially denied this was a “crash,” calling it a “minor technical incident,” but the airframe loss appears irreparable.
This follows:
- March 2024: Tejas crashed in Jaisalmer during training
- November 2025: Tejas crashed at Dubai Air Show, killing Wing Commander Namansh Syal
Air Chief Marshal had publicly stated a year ago that he had “lost faith in HAL.” The Indian Air Force now operates only 29 squadrons against the sanctioned 42 required for two-front war preparedness. The Tejas fleet, with 35 aircraft (down from 38) all grounded, represents two squadrons removed from an already depleted force.
The Root Cause Timeline
1984: LCA program sanctioned 1989: DRDO begins indigenous Kaveri engine development—still incomplete after 37 years, ₹2,000+ crore spent 2001: First LCA prototype flight 2016: Tejas induction into IAF 2016-2025: Only 38 Tejas delivered despite target of 16 per year 2025: Tejas fleet at 38 aircraft, three crashes 2026: Entire fleet grounded
The engine problem remains fundamental: ISRO achieved cryogenic engine development despite sanctions, but DRDO failed to deliver a fighter engine in four decades. Tejas remains dependent on American GE engines, with HAL citing GE delivery delays as a bottleneck.
The Rafale Return
The Cabinet Committee on Security has approved a ₹3 lakh crore ($40 billion) deal for 114 Dassault Rafale multi-role fighters—India’s largest-ever defense procurement. President Macron’s visit confirmed the deal structure:
- 18 Rafales delivered fly-away from France
- 96 to be assembled in India with Tata Advanced Systems
- Indigenization: 30% initially, scaling to 60%
- Safran-DRDO joint development of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) engine
On paper, this addresses the squadron gap. But the fine print reveals continued sovereignty compromises.
The Source Code Problem
French media reports confirm France will NOT transfer source code for the Rafale’s Spectra electronic warfare suite or core avionics. Without source code:
- India cannot modify aircraft systems for indigenous weapons integration
- Full integration into Indian air defense architecture requires French permission
- India must share its own weapon codes with France
- Core intelligence remains under French control
This mirrors the existing 36-Rafale fleet, which operates under similar restrictions. An Indian Rafale reportedly underperformed during Operation Sindoor due to these limitations. The UAE received an API (Application Programming Interface) model allowing some indigenous weapons integration; India—a larger buyer—should demand equal or better terms.
Yet France’s judicial investigation into the 2016 Rafale deal continues. Allegations of corruption and the mysterious selection of Anil Ambani’s Reliance (with no defense experience) as offset partner over HAL prompted French NGO investigations and Supreme Court dismissal in India. Former French President Hollande stated the Reliance name came from India.
The Su-57 Consideration
Simultaneously, India is reconsidering the Sukhoi Su-57—the same fifth-generation stealth fighter rejected in 2018 during Modi’s tenure. The 2007 FGFA joint development agreement with Russia was abandoned, citing insufficient stealth capabilities and inadequate technology transfer.
Now Russia offers Su-57E with local manufacturing and technology transfer. But the Su-57 remains problematic:
- Only 40 built globally, none officially exported
- Stealth inferior to American F-35 and Chinese J-20
- Assembly quality issues
- No combat validation
- Not used by Russia in Ukraine War
If India had not cancelled FGFA in 2018, it would likely field its own fifth-generation fighter today.
The Government’s Accountability
The transcript highlights a pattern: every government contributed to the crisis, but the Modi administration bears direct responsibility for:
- 2015: Cancelled 126-jet MMRCA tender without alternative, leaving IAF vulnerable
- 2018: Rejected Su-57 collaboration, eliminating a near-term fifth-gen path
- 2015-2025: Failed to reform HAL or accelerate Tejas Mk1A delivery (180 ordered, 2-year delay)
- 2015-2025: Did not prioritize AMCA development adequately
- 2025-2026: Continued purchasing 4.5-generation Rafale while China tests sixth-gen fighters
“Zero compromise on national security” rhetoric contrasts sharply with record-low squadron strength.
The Strategic Consequences
- IAF operates at 29 squadrons, target is 42
- Tejas program reliability questioned after three crashes
- Indigenous engine program (Kaveri) failed after 37 years
- Fifth-generation gap: India has zero 5th-gen fighters while China fields J-20, J-35, testing J-36; Pakistan may receive Chinese J-20s
- Foreign dependency: American engines for Tejas, French/Russian decision-making for fighters, no source code access
Recommendations
The transcript outlines three urgent actions:
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Transparent Tejas investigation: Public disclosure of crash causes, especially the Dubai and February 7 incidents. Rebuild confidence in the 182-aircraft order and 351 planned program.
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Rafale source code negotiation: Secure API or better access for indigenous weapons integration. Maintain strategic autonomy. The UAE precedent exists.
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Accelerated fifth-gen acquisition: Whether Su-57 or alternative, decide quickly. China’s lead is widening.
But these are stopgaps. Structural reforms require:
- HAL accountability and performance improvement
- DRDO reform with specific deliverables and timelines
- Honest investigation of corruption in defense procurement
- Sustained R&D investment at Western levels (not 0.65% GDP)
- Defense manufacturing private sector participation beyond politically connected firms
The Political Cost
The video asks: why has every government failed? And why does denial persist? The Modi government’s 12-year tenure saw the cancellation of viable programs without replacements, the waste of Tejas potential, and the continuing degradation of IAF strength.
The Rafale deal, while necessary given circumstances, represents not triumph but emergency procurement under conditions that compromise sovereignty. The “jummela” of defense procurement—announcements, photo-ops, nationalist rhetoric—cannot mask operational reality: India’s Air Force operates at its weakest in six decades.
If the government truly prioritized defense, it would have spent on AMCA development rather than Ladli Behna schemes, would have fixed HAL rather than celebrating numbers, would have demanded source code rather than signing offset deals with Reliance.
The Tejas crash, the Rafale dependence, the Su-57 scramble: they tell the story of a great power’s air force that never was. Will India finally confront the gap between prestige and preparedness? Or will the pattern of PR-driven security policy continue until the next crisis?